A Done Deal Coming Undone

Peter Hain is sitting at his desk, pen in hand, ready to sign the legislation that would restore the Northern Ireland Assembly. The clock is ticking down towards midnight, the deadline that is set in stone, carved in granite, unchangeable. And there's the DUP, wielding a chisel, trying to chip away at that deadline.

The DUP is divided on the power sharing issue. After all, the whole Home Rule issue was stalled and talked to death for well over one hundred years. Why stop now? Who wants to go down in history as the man who caved in to pressure and let the Catholics have any say in their government? The diploma mill reverend might like the idea of going to his grave as the First Minister of Northern Ireland, but he surely does not want to be remembered as the man who lost the never ending battle for the Union of England and Ireland.

The British Exchequer offered a hefty package of benefits if the DUP would play nice, but the Big Man turned up his nose at the offer. Not at all enough money, he sniffed, and the worst of it is that a big chunk is coming from the Republic of Ireland. They'll be wanting their money's worth, and who wants Paddy sticking his nose in UK business? So more was demanded, but not another penny offered.

That tactic didn't work, so the DUP is trying a new approach. They are meeting today, trying to find a way around the Monday meeting deadline with some clever bit of business that would postpone the opening of Stormont. Commit to power sharing, as required, but the Protestants are going to set the timetable and not the English and Irish governments. Play that one right, and nothing has to change. Stall until May, then claim that Shinners have not adequately proven their embrace of law and order. Call them a gang of terrorists and criminals, not fit for sharing power with, and that's the end of all this nonsense. And best of all, the blame for failure can be planted in Sinn Fein. Perfect.

Sinn Fein has thrown their lot in with the power sharing notion, and the DUP is doing all they can to hold off on completion of the deal, in the fervent hope that failure to gain political power will shatter the political party and leave the Catholic contingent in disarray. From that collapse comes the undisputed hegemony of the united Protestants, and the Union is saved.

The DUP is counting on support in Parliament, and there are plenty of politicians in Commons who see the dissolution of the Union creeping up on them. The Scots are angling for their own Parliament, and then inclusion in the EU as an individual nation. If the Northern Irish get Stormont, they might be next, and it's a known fact that Sinn Fein is still pushing for a united Ireland by 2016.

Whether the deal is done or undone will depend on the British and Irish governments holding firm, letting the DUP hold their breath until they turn blue. If there is no deal, and water rates skyrocket, it will be the DUP doing the splintering and their constituents laying blame.

Can't hardly wait for Monday, to see the next play in the long game.