How Many Anecdotes Does It Take To Make A Fact

What is the state of publishing today?

According to the Washington Post, it is what their panel of intervewees say it is.

But can you just go ask a person their opinion and declare that to be the facts of the case?

There are still book shops in existence, albeit a tenuous one. There are still big publishing houses, which are merging to realize synergies of scale (reduce number of employees needed to generate increased profits). There are literary agents acting as publishers for their clients' e-books, just as there are authors publishing their own e-books without further assistance.

You can read the article linked above, and draw your own conclusions, but you won't have a firm notion of where publishing is headed once you've finished. At least you wouldn't feel compeled to buy stock in the Random Penguin or HMH. Or sell your holdings, for that matter.

How many people would the Washington Post have to talk to in order to form a more clear image of publishing's future?

Would it take ten percent of all involved? Ten percent of the publishers, both major and minor? Ten percent of the self-publishing set? And it doesn't count if they only considered those writing science fiction and fantasy. There are their own subset.

There are no definite trends showing up just yet.

For publishing, that is the problem. Manuscripts are like trees to be planted. The planter has hope for the future when they cannot predict that climate that the manuscript will encounter.

Technology is moving too fast to predict where e-readers or hard copies will be in ten years time.

Who can say whether or not some nostalgia craze will drive an upsurge in real books, leaving digital editions far behind? Will the Washington Post then declare e-publishing is dead?

In the end, what matters is that people continue to read, for information or for pleasure or a mixture of both.

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