Carrot and Stick, Hold the Carrot

Up in the north of Ireland, the elected officials are supposed to be meeting, coming up with some sort of government that's in line with the Belfast Agreement. It's home rule, the same issue that's been plaguing the UK for hundreds of years, and now the politicians are under the gun. It's get it together, or else.

That's a mighty heavy stick that Dublin and London are using to dangle a mighty insignificant carrot under the noses of Sinn Fein and the DUP. The deadline to form a home rule government is set in stone, and it won't be changed, not ever, no matter what. Paisley or Adams could beg and plead until their tongues swell up and fall off, but come November 24, the clock will stop ticking, the alarm will go off and then...ah, what then?

Today, Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair took out the heavy lumber. And it's the DUP getting a beating, while Sinn Fein is drooling over the carrot. If the two parties can't come to an agreement, elect the First Minister from one party and the Deputy First Minister from the other, then a new bit of business will be undertaken.

Hey, Paisley, they shout from Dublin and London. Listen up, and listen good. Go gentle into that home rule government, or Dublin is going to have a lot more to do with governing the north than you could ever imagine. You don't like home rule, the prime ministers seem to be saying, well, it could be a lot worse for you.

Implied in their threat is an even worse outcome for the DUP. Dublin's going to be involved, and the Shinners want a united Ireland, and won't they be over the moon to have the Republic involved in the north? Behave, DUP, or we'll give the nationalists a little of what they've been after for the past ninety years, and you'll be sorry then. Look for Ian Paisley to be frothing at the mouth, roaring out his hymns and castigating any and all who dare to suggest that Dublin be called in from the sidelines.

A new study came out recently, showing that Northern Ireland is dependent on government subsidies, with over 60% of the Gross National Product the result of public service jobs. With evidence like that, you'd see why London would be keen to get rid of the six counties and the money pit that is Ulster province. Maybe they're counting on the DUP to balk at the threat, just they can have a reasonable excuse to pull out and dump the colony on Ireland.

And Sinn Fein is praying, fervently, that it comes to pass.

Belfast Agreement, Northern Ireland