When The Clueless Predict Sales

Publishers have an ongoing dilemma.

Before buying a manuscript, they have to figure out if a book will sell. They have no way to determine that except by sitting around a conference table and discussing, as if their past experience is enough of a guide.

In other words, they take a flying leap of faith and hope they don't land short of the mark.

According to the New York Times, publishers are queueing up for the right to buy Amanda Knox's memoir.

As usual, the suits want to know if it will sell and make them money, and how much money, so how much could Ms. Knox be offered, and how bad does the house want it, etc. etc.

Editors dissect the market, the emotion of the reading public, and try to take the temperature of public opinion. Raging fever or cold interest in the experiences of an American college student accused of murder, only to be thoroughly exonerated? Do potential buyers think she killed her roommate, as alleged by Italy's most whacked-out prosecutor, or do they think she got away with murder?

Giuliano Mignini managed to stir up a whirlwind of negative press against Ms. Knox, and the Italian public believed what they read. In the minds of the major publishers, that means the Italian public is still against Ms. Knox, so maybe she wasn't really and truly exonerated.

Where does the Italian public stand?

Ah, la bella figura.

The publishing houses who back off from the auction of Ms. Knox's memoirs may not understand the concept. The Italian public was humiliated on a very public stage when the world saw their prosecutor as an incompetent fool who spun plots out of thin air, and the more bizarre and reprehensible, the better. They'd prefer to say nothing more, to offer no other opinions on the case.

In short, they'd like it to go away.

That doesn't mean they believe that Ms. Knox is guilty of the crime. They just don't want to be reminded of the fact that they stirred up a huge fuss over a complete fabrication.

So could you please not publish Ms. Knox's memoirs and remind everyone all over again about a prosecutor who was convicted of abusing his office and who completely botched the "Monster of Florence" case before that? 

Any publishing house who thinks the American public, and readers in the EU, wouldn't buy the book because the editors are afraid Ms. Knox might actually be guilty are clueless.

They really should get out of New York City more. Maybe pop into some independent book shops in out-of-the-way places and see what real people like to read.